Trump and the paper bag full of water.
I wrote last week that The case against Biden has evaporated, and the week before that, I wrote that Biden had had the best week yet, saying in part: As I’ve been saying for a long time Trump is going to lose. And he might even lose badly.
Links to posts from a long time ago:
— Nov. 3, 2023: Trump and the GOP are in real trouble, whether they know it or not; Sep 23, 2023: It's not Dems who should be worried; May 1, 2023: Two big clues on why the GOP will lose the presidency in 2024
So, I’ve been very clear about where I stand on this.
This week presented all kinds of additional evidence to support my position, and I’m going to go into that below.
But the bigger point I want to make is I think one analyst had it right when they said:
Trump is like a person walking around with a paper bag full of water. It’s starting to leak already, and at some point, the bottom is going to fall out of it.
I think that’s what we’re going to see happen.
Let’s present three recent data points that make the case.
First.
First, recent election results the past week should terrify Trump and company. See below:
Second.
Second, the money advantage for Biden is becoming overwhelming — and perhaps impossible to eclipse.
As Eugene Robinson wrote in The Washington Post, Trump is already losing to Biden in a big way:
President Biden’s reelection campaign reported Wednesday that it has $71 million in cash on hand — more than double the $33.5 million that Trump’s campaign reported having. If you throw in the bank balances of affiliated groups supporting the candidates, Trump’s campaign liquidity rises to $42 million — but Biden’s soars to a stunning $155 million, a ridiculous amount for this point in the cycle.
It makes me wonder about all those stories telling us how unenthusiastic Democrats are about Biden’s reelection. I’m starting to think that maybe — hear me out — we should pay less attention to what people say and more to what they actually do.
The Republican National Committee is in no position to bail the Trump campaign out. It reported raising $10.7 million in February, ending the month with $11.3 million in the bank. But the Democratic National Committee raised $16.6 million in February and was left with $26.6 million in cash on hand. No wonder that Trump sent daughter-in-law Lara Trump over to the RNC to try to improve the balance sheet.
Also, as I’ve said before, the small donors aren’t enthusiastic about Trump on attempt number three.
In 2019, his campaign collected $72 million in donations of $200 or less. But since launching his third White House bid in November 2022 and the end of last year, small donors have given just $27 million, according to data from the non-profit OpenSecrets.
And let’s not forget: Trump also has 200,000 fewer small donors. (Donald Trump's donor numbers fall by 200,000.)
Third.
Third, the polls are finally catching up to reality.
Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump in eight polls.
And Biden plans $30 million ad blitz and battleground state visits as general election campaign begins.
And as these final months begin to unwind, remember this.
Trump has a high floor. He can’t win people back because he’s just that unhinged and dangerous, and comments about bloodbaths aren't going to help his cause.
I mean seriously, do you know anyone who DIDN’T vote for him in 2016 or 2020 who now suddenly thinks he’s a winner?
On the flip side, Biden has a low floor. His number can — and I think will — go up.
Also, this isn’t going to help.
We have to be real here.
There is literally unprecedented opposition to his campaign from former staffers and campaign officials.
Trump is so toxic that he couldn’t produce a list of references long enough to even get a job at Kroger bagging groceries.
And as more and more coverage on him comes out — his crazy rallies, his desperate demands to pay court judgments, his insistence that Ukraine be abandoned, that Republicans NOT fix the border, that abortions be banned nationwide — it’s only going to get worse.
The bottom of the bag is about to fall out.
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Love and peace,
Stan R. Mitchell
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