I’ve been writing consistently that I’m pessimistic about the Republican Party’s chances in any upcoming elections. It might take four to six years minimum (or, two to three federal elections) to clean up the rubble and ashes left by Trump’s hands on the wheel.
It goes without saying that in the 2024 Presidential election, I see little chance that a Republican wins back the White House.
I won’t water space on the obvious arguments:
A: Trump is unpopular and will lose again, probably worse than last time.
B: Even if DeSantis or someone else beats him, Trump will tell his supporters to stay at home — and they’ll listen — or he’ll run third party.
But in addition to these points, there are two additional, big clues on why the GOP will lose again in 2024 to President Biden.
The first involves Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who ought to be at the top of the list of candidates vying for the Republican Party’s nomination.
Kemp, who beat Democrat Stacey Abrams by 7.5 points in the same race that Republican Herschel Walker lost to Raphael Warnock by 2.8 points, is weirdly not seen as a clear political superstar.
How is that possible? Kemp crushed his opponent (who had a national profile and nearly ended up being Biden’s VP pick). Kemp scored a big win in a tough year and even stood up to Trump without attacking him or upsetting the base.
That’s like hitting a grand slam in the last inning of Game 7 of the Workd Series. Just impossible odds.
And yet Trump acolytes have seized control of the state party in Georgia and barred any chance for Kemp to run against Biden. The Associated Press wrote a brilliant piece on what’s happening in Georgia (and across the country).
From the story:
A slate of Georgia Republicans led by Gov. Brian Kemp handily won reelection last year over far-right primary opponents endorsed by Donald Trump and backed by the state party chairperson, showing the limits of the former president and his 2020 election lies in the critical swing state.
Despite those stinging primary losses, the state GOP is showing little interest in moving on from Trump.
Last weekend, Republicans in Georgia’s 1st Congressional District, which includes Savannah, elected as their chair Kandiss Taylor, a Kemp gubernatorial challenger who ran on a “Jesus Guns Babies” platform and denies the legitimacy of her primary defeat. In metro Atlanta’s 6th Congressional District, Republican activists considered a resolution rejecting the results of the 2020 election and declaring Democrat Joe Biden the “acting” president.
This is all bad enough, but would you believe that Kemp even got booed at the 2021 state party convention? This is not how sane political parties act.
But the Republican Party isn’t looking for winners. And it’s not acting rational or coherent.
That brings up point two.
Here’s the second reason the GOP will lose in 2024. (And also 2026 and 2028 unless it seriously alters course.)
Billionaire Republican megadonor, Peter Thiel, has now come out and said he won’t fund candidates in 2024. Did I mention that Thiel donated $35 million alone in 2020 to Republican efforts?!
From the story:
Tech billionaire and Republican megadonor Peter Thiel, an early backer of former President Donald Trump who later broke with him, has told associates he is not planning to donate to any political candidates in 2024, according to two people close to the businessman.
Thiel is unhappy with the Republican Party's focus on hot-button U.S. cultural issues, said one of the sources, a business associate, citing abortion and restrictions on which bathrooms transgender students can use in schools as two examples.
Four political sources also told Reuters that Thiel is taking a step back from U.S. politics. Thiel, who diverged from his Silicon Valley peers with his embrace of conservative causes, identifies as a supporter of libertarianism, a political philosophy that stresses the importance of individual freedoms.
The timing of this article about Thiel is perfect. Because literally four days ago, I shared a post how abortion is a losing topic and people are pretty clear that they want women to have a right to choose. (If you recall, I mentioned hearing a pro-life, Republican father say that while he opposes abortions, he also has a college-age daughter…)
Personal freedoms used to be — and still are — a big deal to Republicans. (Remember all the anti-government COVID anger from Trump’s base just three years ago?)
Just because Thiel has more than $4 billion distant mean he’s going to throw it away for no point. Thiel has contributed around $50 million to state and federal political candidates and campaigns in just three years, but he’s not an idiot.
Trump and his supporters are going to keep the GOP on a nosedive straight into the ground.
Love and peace,
Stan R. Mitchell
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CLOSING THOUGHT: Do not despair in these coming days. The light of dawn is emerging, and nothing can stop light (or truth).
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"Personal freedoms used to be — and still are — a big deal to Republicans"
Um, no. The supersonic velocity of books bans, trans bans, abortion bans, in most red states, or states with a Republican legislature stands against that assertion.
Republicans can win the WH in 2024. All they have to do is force a default by not raising the debt ceiling. It'll crash and burn. The first few weeks, Republicans will be blamed.
Then, the mainstream media, which leans Republican, will start helping Republicans, and the devastation will be blamed on Biden and the Democrats.
This was tried out successfully. In late 2013, Ted Cruz and McConnell hut down the government, The polls indicated a severe backlash on Republicans. Democrats enjoyed a 7-9 point advantage in the generic polls.
Less than a year later, the Democrats lost both chambers of Congress. The Senate went from 53-47 to 46-54 for them.